Separation Threat … No Way Wexit?
Ever since the October 21, 2019 vote and results released there has been speculation that based on the strong seat count in Alberta and the west for the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer, there may be renewed talk of the possibility that they may be leaning towards Separating.
As was the case on or about 1998 Separation has always arisen in Canada. Then it was Quebec under the Bloc Quebecois, a predominantly French speaking region of Canada, with Montreal as its capital. Now in 2019 it is Western Canada which is oil rich. They voted blue en block … that is for the Conservatives who got 121 seats out of 338 in the Federal Parliament. The Liberals led by Trudeau got 157. The Liberals needed a further 13 seats to obtain an outright majority of 170 at least.
Canada is not divisible … is it? This separation speculation is more talk than reality. The threat on or about 1998 was real. This threat today is less likely. None the less it cannot be ignored.
Minority Government
To survive the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau will have to adopt an agenda that is popular with at least one of the other parties with more than 13 seats. For example an environmental/climate change issue which most agree on. It will not be easy for Trudeau to govern as he needs the support of at least the NDP to pass any bill in Parliament. The NDP, referred to as the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Sing said it was prepared to support the Liberals on an issue/case by case basis. Trudeau has ruled out a coalition with any of the parties. Why? This is strange. Let us wait and see.
Britain
In Britain they are having difficulty passing a Brexit departure plan as they are a coalition government. A lot of bickering and selfless postering. This type of behaviour is certainly not illegal just time consuming and disgusting at times.
Political Seat Map
The other minor parties which make up the political seat map of Canada have 181 seats in total. The breakdown is as follows: The Bloc Quebecois with 32, the NDP with 24, the Greens with 3 seats and one Independent in the person of Jody Wilson-Raybould who was kicked out by the Liberal Party who ran Independently for Vancouver Granville and won. Already mentioned the Conservatives with 121 seats making up the grand total of 338. The People’s Party Of Canada led by one Max Bernier did not win any seats. The only seat they had was his and they lost same. The questions are: 1) Have they lost their recognised party status? 2) Are they then still a party?
No Confidence
Should a no confidence vote be moved almost all the 18 seats held by the minor parties would have to vote en block to remove the Liberals. At least more than 157. This is not impossible, but most unlikely. A successful no confidence vote could possibly trigger a new general election. The NDP may not wish to go there as they are believed to be heavily indebted. They lost 20 seats in the October 21 polls.
How The West Was Lost?
To fully appreciate the enormity of the situation facing Canadian prospective leaders one has to understand that Canada is a vast country with many languages with two official languages … English and French. Different time zones and some remote areas. As the geography covers a wide land mass … so are the competing interests. For example one region wants a pipeline and another does not. Clean drinking water is their main interest. Another does not want any pipeline passing through their territory. Then there is the language issue. Quebec wants to protect their French tongue. So if you wish to govern successfully one has to be bilingual … at least be able to speak French and English at least conversationally. How will say the clean drinking water be paid for?
What will it take to win back the West? The Liberal government must pay closer attention to the economic interests and wishes of all. Encourage more oil sales. Return more cash to regions which produce the wealth while helping other less contributors to the national economy. Share the wealth more equitably.
Federal System
Canada is known as a Confederation. A coming together of various regions. Ontario, Quebec, North West Territories etc.
There are three levels of government in Canada. Local, Provincial wide and Federal.
A Federal party may have seats in one region, but none in another. For example the Parti Quebecois is strong in Quebec, but has no seats in the rest of Canada. How do you fathom that? They have allocated to their Island 78 seats out of 338 nationally.. The Liberals and the Conservatives have (seats) in most regions, so getting a majority to govern nationally is no easy feat.
Air Transportation
To reach all regions you need to have a plane. A train or a car will not always work. The road network does not cover all regions. For example some regions are only reachable by air or sea. Montreal for example again has a road network from Ontario even as it is an Island.
The West
Alberta et al to the West can be reached by road from Ontario and Quebec known as the Trans- Canadian Highway. This is not so for say Equality and many other small cities or regions. Some of these are tiny cities with very small population levels, but are important to the whole country and economy. Salmon is in abundance in one region and oil in another. Engineering is strong in say Quebec. Airplanes and trains are built there. Bombardier and SNC Lavalin are located there. This region alone contributes a lot in export sales to the economy of Canada. Ontario is strong on Tourism with the world famous Niagara Falls. Also car manufacturing plants like Ford and GM to name a few.
The above in a nutshell is what Canada is. A vast place with a rich history and also mineral wealth which we did not even mention. Then there is wheat in the prairies and tobacco farms and apples to name a few agricultural crops. Grapes are grown in Ontario where wine is produced in abundance. Lumber and Konola. All of which are exported. These and other products are shipped to the world to boost economic growth in Canada.
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