TORONTO — The Ontario government has released its 2025–26 First Quarter Finances, providing the first update on the province’s economic and fiscal outlook since the spring budget. The report shows the province’s financial projections remain on track, with GDP growth steady and a balanced budget still expected by 2027–28.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said Ontario’s position is the strongest it has been in over a decade.
“In the face of economic uncertainty, our plan will continue to protect Ontario’s workers, businesses, and jobs from the impacts of U.S. tariffs while building a more resilient and self-reliant economy,” Bethlenfalvy said.
Economic Performance
Ontario’s real GDP grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the previous quarter’s pace. Growth was driven by higher exports and household spending.
Today’s release of Ontario’s Q1 Finances proves our government is making Ontario the most competitive economy in the G7.
Through our fiscal prudence, we are in a position to do more to help workers, families and businesses weather economic uncertainty amid U.S. tariffs. pic.twitter.com/EZaOfcTkOH
— Peter Bethlenfalvy (@PBethlenfalvy) August 13, 2025
Fiscal Outlook
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Deficit: $14.6 billion, unchanged from the 2025 Ontario Budget projection.
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Revenue: $219.9 billion, in line with budget forecasts.
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Program Spending: $216.3 billion.
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Cost of Borrowing: 4.0%, with interest charges projected at $16.2 billion.
The province’s net debt-to-GDP ratio remains at 37.9%, one of the lowest levels in over a decade, and all four major credit rating agencies have reaffirmed Ontario’s double-A rating.
Borrowing & Debt Management
Ontario has already completed nearly half of its 2025–26 borrowing requirements. The province remains Canada’s largest issuer of Green Bonds, with $21.5 billion issued since 2014–15, including $16.8 billion currently outstanding.
Next Steps
The government will provide its next fiscal update in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (Fall Economic Statement) by November 15, 2025.
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